Monday, January 12, 2009

Sensex 8000 to 80000: No change in my estimates of March '08

There are no changes in my estimates made almost a year back in March '08.

Key elements of my estimates :-

  • “Sensex likely to go up to 40K (min 25K) by Sept 2013 and 80K (min 45K) by 2016. However before that , Sensex likely to breach the 10K mark too in the next 18 months period……Markets are harsh and unforgiving. But for those who can think (and hold stocks) for a 7 year range, they are one of the best investment options.  
           Sensex 10K in one year and 80 K in eight years

  • “ Growth slowdown - GDP growth for 08-09 likely to be in 5% range.....
              ......Next twelve months all resources will get repriced :-

               a) Interest rates will come down across board. Housing loan likely to go down to 7%,       personal loans to 10%, Auto at 9%.Those were the levels just a few years back.

              b) Increments / bonuses / job change increments will come down. labor market will get more fairly priced.

              c) Real estate prices likely to correct more than 30% from current levels. “

         India : From a slowdown to a recession and what it might imply
  • “….UK housing continues to follow in US footsteps. No change in China and Japan growth numbers reduction. These are all major world economies and have a strong combined linkages across the globe. Are we in the middle of a truly global slowdown.?
         ....What will happen to the stock markets ? ….If we manage our investments right, we'll probably make more money than in any of the previous cycles. Some might be able retire early.”
Global Slowdown ? -the good ,the bad and the ugly